Meeting and event planners entered 2026 expecting a quiet year for airfares. Instead, a fuel shock, tighter airline schedules, the loss of a major low-cost carrier and flight caps at key U.S. hubs have made getting attendees to the room more expensive and less predictable.

In January, the forecasts were calm. One early report this year projected broadly stable fares, and IATA Director General Willie Walsh said average fares would fall in real terms. That outlook ended on March 2, when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and jet fuel prices more than doubled within weeks.

Eight months later, the effects are still moving through fares, schedules and corporate travel budgets. For conventions and association meetings, where many attendees book their own flights, the result is pressure on both registration numbers and the case for attending at all.

The fuel spike has pushed airfares up, and much of the increase is likely to outlast the conflict. IATA had forecast jet fuel at US$88 a barrel for 2026, but FCM Consulting put real-world costs at around US$141 by mid-year, about 60% above forecast.

FCM found that 22 airlines skipped visible fuel surcharges and raised base fares instead. That means the cost now sits inside published fares and negotiated corporate rates until airlines choose to refile them. Data from OAG Airfare Insights confirms that global airfares hit an average of $448 in September 2026 (a 12.3% year-on-year increase) and provisional October 2026 numbers sit at $453. The pressure has not let up. In October, Singapore jet fuel reached US$188.60 a barrel, and carriers across South, Southeast and East Asia reintroduced distance-based surcharges. Cathay Pacific now reviews its surcharge every two weeks.

Airlines are holding capacity tight rather than chasing growth. Global scheduled capacity was just 0.7% above the prior year in the week to Oct. 19, according to CAPA – Centre for Aviation and OAG, and carriers have been trimming forward schedules.

FCM’s Emma Duff described the market as a capacity-constraint story rather than a recovery story. Global capacity projections were cut by 53 million seats in May alone compared with February forecasts, and Asia-Pacific load factors reached a record 85.1%.

U.S. carriers have followed suit. United CEO Scott Kirby told staff the airline was planning for oil as high as $175 a barrel, staying above $100 through the end of 2027, and trimmed about five points of planned capacity. Delta held second-quarter growth flat. For attendees, that means fewer off-peak flights, fewer secondary-city options and less room to rebook after a disruption.

Low-cost Options Shrink and Hubs Hit Limits

Spirit Airlines ceased operations in early May after 34 years, when government rescue talks stalled. Its exit removes 21.3 million seats from the U.S. market through 2026. That loss falls hardest on self-funded convention attendees, who tend to be the most price-sensitive.

Congestion at major hubs adds another constraint. The FAA capped flights at Chicago O’Hare from May 17 to Oct. 24, and in June extended flight limits at the three New York-area airports, citing continued air traffic controller shortages. Chicago and New York are major feeder markets for U.S. conventions, so caps and delays there can affect arrival windows and opening-day attendance.

Demand for in-person meetings is holding, but each trip now has to justify itself. GBTA projects global business travel spending of $1.71 trillion in 2026, up 7.2%, while the number of trips grows only 1.3%. Morgan Stanley’s survey found just 8% of travel volume expected to shift permanently to virtual this year, down from as much as 29% in earlier surveys.

Groups remain the hard part. At GBTA Convention 2026, 64% of buyers said groups and meetings are harder to manage than individual travel.

The oneworld Meetings and Events Trends 2027–2030 report, produced with Globetrender and released at IMEX Las Vegas in October, names “The ROI of Presence” as a defining trend: rising costs are forcing organizers to prove attendance pays off. It also points to longer nonstop routes, such as Qantas’s Sydney–London Project Sunrise flights starting in 2027, as reshaping which destinations are practical.

Airlines are also courting event business directly. Alongside the report, oneworld relaunched its Meetings & Events platform, which offers preferential fares across 15 member airlines for events with at least 50 independently traveling delegates, booked through a shared link.

8 Ways Planners Can Respond

1. Rebuild air budgets from current fares. Last year’s benchmarks no longer apply. Consider resetting budget expectations with finance leaders now rather than mid-program.
2. Lock in air early. With fewer seats and record load factors, cheap fare classes sell out first. Set and communicate advance-purchase deadlines for staff and speakers.
3. Ask about airline meeting programs. Group blocks, meeting discount codes and alliance platforms can soften fare increases for attendees who book on their own.
4. Use NDC channels. FCM recommends booking through NDC to reach airline content and fares not shown in traditional GDS displays.
5. Check feeder-city lift before signing. Confirm nonstop service from your top attendee markets is still scheduled, since airlines have been trimming secondary routes.
6. Build buffer into the program. Avoid scheduling must-attend sessions first thing on day one, especially when attendees connect through capped hubs like O’Hare or the New York airports.
7. Help attendees make the ROI case. Justification letters, outcome-focused agendas and clear networking value help attendees win approval when every trip is scrutinized.
8. Keep risk and duty-of-care plans current. Geopolitical disruption can close airspace or ground routes quickly; know your rebooking and communication plan before you need it.