A newly released U.S. Travel Association report on the state of group travel found that that the U.S. group travel industry entered 2025 with high hopes and left it with a more complex story to tell. But buried beneath the headline softness are some of the most actionable signals the segment has produced in years.

2025 was Resilient, not a Rebound

After three years of post-pandemic recovery, the industry expected 2025 to be the year group business travel finally returned to 2019 levels. Instead, performance proved resilient rather than explosive. The CEIR Total Industry Index — the benchmark measure of B2B exhibition health — held broadly flat versus 2024, with marginal declines across Q1 through Q3. Group hotel room bookings dipped 1.6% year-over-year, and weekday occupancy fell 1.4% on average.

But these numbers obscure the fact that the declines were narrowing each quarter. The gap versus 2024 shrank from -1.5 percentage points in Q1 to just -0.4 points by Q3. Group hotel demand turned positive in October and November, closing the year with momentum. And RFP volumes — a leading indicator of future group business — held at 109% of 2019 levels.

This means demand didn’t disappear; it just deferred. The industry has a pipeline, and 2026 has the conditions to help clear it.

Supporting this view, a Morgan Stanley survey of corporate travel managers found that about 61% were “very optimistic” or “somewhat optimistic” about 2026’s outlook, up sharply from 50% at the 2025 midyear mark. Travel budgets are forecast to rise 5%, and the share of travel volume expected to shift permanently virtual fell to just 8% — down from as high as 29% in prior-year surveys. However, it’s worth noting that a Morgan Stanley survey from April 2026, published after the initial survey, found that buyer optimism has dimmed slightly, with 27% of buyers saying they were somewhat pessimistic about business travel compared with 16% in the prior year’s survey, with geopolitical instability cited as the top concern. However, budget growth projections actually came in above prior estimates, with buyers expecting budgets to increase an average of 5.8% year-over-year in H1 2026 — so the spend is there even if the mood is a bit more cautious.

What Actually Hurt Performance in 2025

Understanding where demand softened helps planners avoid the same traps in 2026. Three forces did the most damage:

-Macroeconomic and tariff uncertainty. Only 23% of businesses were confident in tariff stability. Nearly one in three industry professionals saw international instability as a top short-term challenge. This uncertainty didn’t kill travel budgets, but it did slow decision-making. Later event registrations, shorter hotel booking windows and delayed group commitments became the new normal. As Marriott’s SVP of Sales and Distribution Gail Frazer put it in the USTA report, “The booking window has compressed — volatility isn’t an exception anymore, it’s the norm.”

-A tale of two company sizes. Large enterprises pulled back while smaller businesses leaned in. According to the Deloitte Corporate Travel Study, 59% of large firms planned to increase travel budgets compared to roughly 80% of smaller firms. When large companies did cut, they cut deeper — 35% on average versus 24% for smaller organizations. This signals a real opportunity: Small and mid-size businesses are your most motivated buyers right now, and they are showing up for trade shows and conferences with genuine purpose.

-International attendance took a hit. Domestic group business travel expenditures rose 3% year-over-year in 2025, continuing strong growth from prior years. International group expenditures, however, dropped 3% — an 18-percentage-point swing versus 2024 growth. An analysis of 300-plus tradeshows found that international inbound attendance fell at 18 of the top 20 international markets. Factors cited included travel bans, stricter visa enforcement and general concern about U.S. entry policies. Planners running events with international audiences should build extra registration lead time and consider proactive outreach to international attendees with clear, practical guidance on entry requirements.

The Opportunities That Actually Grew in 2025

Not every part of the segment softened. Several subsegments accelerated, and planners who understand them will have a real competitive edge.

Mid-sized cities are having a moment. Rising costs in major metros are pushing corporate buyers toward secondary destinations. Among those identified as the fastest-growing corporate travel destinations by year-over-year growth are Richmond, Charleston, Columbus, Boise and New Orleans. At the same time, other data shows that finance and insurance events saw a 5.4% increase in leads versus 2024, and tech and science events grew 5.1%. Government and franchise/retail events, on the other hand, saw double-digit declines. If you’re booking events in emerging cities and serving finance or tech audiences, you’re in a strong position.

Youth and amateur sports travel never wavered. In some destination markets, youth sports has become the single top-producing travel segment — surpassing meetings and conventions. Fifty-five percent of American youth now play organized sports, rebounding from a pandemic low of 51% in 2021. Private equity investment in youth sports infrastructure jumped from a 27% to 37% share of sector deals in 2025, and the market now exceeds a $40 billion valuation. The “tournacation” trend — families combining a tournament trip with leisure stays — is generating spillover demand for hotels, restaurants and entertainment venues. This creates a compelling case for planners: Events and meetings co-located with sports facilities in mid-sized cities may enjoy built-in ancillary audiences and foot traffic.

Technology-driven events showed strength. The broader uncertainty created a specific bifurcation by sector. Companies in tech and science, finance and manufacturing increased their event participation. Planners serving these verticals should lean into that momentum rather than treating all segments as equally challenged.

The Booking Behavior Shift You Need to Plan Around

One of the most practically important findings for planners is the compression of the booking window, which all the data indicates is here to stay. Economic and geopolitical volatility has trained buyers to wait. Tradeshow registration data from March through October 2025 shows that two in three client events saw decreased registrations during the March–August period, but that improved to just one in three by September–October. The trend is toward later decisions, not fewer decisions.

What this means operationally is that it makes sense to build your event timelines to accommodate late-breaking registrations. Hold block rooms or venue capacity longer before releasing. Design your marketing sequences to include strong late-stage urgency campaigns. And critically, consider offering more flexible cancellation policies. Buyers who are uncertain about commitment are more likely to register if the risk of doing so feels manageable.

Why 2026 Looks Like an Inflection Point

Several forces converge in 2026 that the industry hasn’t had the benefit of in recent years.

The FIFA World Cup is the wildcard. Eleven U.S. cities will host matches, drawing an estimated 1.24 million international visitors — 60% of whom (roughly 700,000 people) would not have made the trip otherwise. The World Cup is widely viewed by industry leaders as a potential confidence reset: A proof of concept for large-scale international travel to the U.S. that could unlock pent-up demand from global buyers who have been on the fence. U.S. Travel Association forecasts a 3.7% increase in international inbound visits in 2026 after an estimated 6.3% drop in 2025. For planners scheduling events in host cities — or adjacent markets that can capture overflow demand — this is a meaningful window.

Domestic group travel is projected to grow 1.4% in 2026 to $118 billion, according to the U.S. Travel Association’s Spring 2026 forecast. That’s modest, but it’s positive growth in an environment where many buyers remain cautious. Group travel is also forecast to outpace overall business travel growth, confirming that the in-person instinct is durable.

The digital-to-in-person pendulum is swinging. As AI-driven digital interaction becomes ubiquitous, face-to-face connection is increasingly valued precisely because it’s scarce. Data points reflect this: 20% of travelers in 2025 made a trip solely for a live event, with the figure rising among 18–44-year-olds. Social media creator event ticket sales surged 500% in 2025 versus 2024. And 92% of parents say they plan to travel with their children in the next year — the highest family travel intent since before the pandemic. All this bolsters the idea that authentic in-person experiences are a growing competitive advantage.

Survey data points to a turning of the tide. Eighty-six percent of business travelers say they will travel more as a group this year, up from 73% the prior year. Meeting professionals’ optimism for 2026 stands at 85% — a five-year high.

What This Means for How You Compete in 2026

The report’s closing message is worth taking seriously: 2026 is the year to stop talking about recovery and start executing for growth. A few specific implications for planners:

Prove value explicitly. Organizations are asking not whether to travel, but why and how. Operators who can articulate clear business outcomes for their events — attendee ROI, measurable connections made and deals closed — will win budget in a year when scrutiny is high.

Don’t abandon international audiences, but do get proactive. International attendance fell for structural reasons, not because global buyers lost interest. Clear messaging about entry requirements, simplified visa guidance and personal outreach can move the needle. International attendance at U.S. events was better than headlines suggested, and 2026 World Cup momentum gives you a positive narrative to work with.

Look at second and third-tier cities with fresh eyes. Cost pressures on buyers and venue cost increases in tier-one markets have made mid-sized cities structurally attractive. The product available in these markets has improved meaningfully. If you haven’t priced out cities like Columbus, Boise or New Orleans recently, now is the time.

Design for flexibility. Shorter booking windows aren’t going away. Build event formats, pricing structures and operational plans that work with late-breaking decisions rather than against them.

Youth sports is adjacent infrastructure for your next event. Communities investing heavily in sports tourism are simultaneously investing in hotel capacity, dining, and entertainment infrastructure that benefits every type of group event. That alignment is worth following.